Financial intelligence from
20 macro analysts.

Gold Is the One Thing Everyone Agrees On

Gold consensus strengthened to +1.01 weighted — 19 of 20 analysts bullish, its firmest reading of the year. Michael Howell frames it as a "monetary debasement" hedge tied to central-bank balance-sheet expansion; Luke Gromen sees it re-emerging as a neutral reserve asset competing with Treasuries. Even Jeff Snider, the room's deflationist, holds gold as a systemic-stress barometer. Darius Dale reportedly moved to a 30% gold allocation, replacing bonds.

The Fed Debate Has Genuinely Split

Fed policy path flipped from a bullish lean to bearish at the consensus level (-0.15 weighted), but underneath sits a true 8-8 divide. Luke Gromen and Raoul Pal now argue the Fed must cut to refinance debt ("you cannot run a Volcker policy with 120% debt-to-GDP"), while Jeff Snider and Danielle DiMartino Booth see policy as reactive and lagging. This is the week's cleanest example of healthy disagreement.

Growth and AI Capex Are the Shared Worry

The strongest bearish consensus this week isn't a market call — it's the real economy. US growth sits at -0.58 (15 of 19 bearish) and AI capex at -0.66 (14 of 18 bearish). Danielle DiMartino Booth points to WARN notices and a weakening labor force; Demetri Kofinas flipped bearish on AI capex, questioning the hands-off approach to the buildout.

The Dollar Is a Coin Flip

DXY drifted from a bearish lean to dead-neutral (-0.00 weighted, 9 bull / 10 bear). Hugh Hendry reversed to bullish, calling the dollar "the guillotine" as global dollar debts must be serviced; Brent Johnson's Milkshake thesis holds. Against them stand Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden and Louis-Vincent Gave, who see structural debasement.

Luke Gromen — Fiscal Dominance & Gold Revaluation

Gromen's thesis holds: the US is trapped in a debt spiral where the Fed can't fight inflation without triggering a sovereign crisis. This week he turned bullish on the Fed path — cuts are necessary because "you cannot run a Volcker policy with a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio." Strongly bullish gold as a neutral reserve asset; bearish long Treasuries ("return-free risk"); bearish USD long-term via managed devaluation.

Michael Howell — The Liquidity Cycle

Howell frames the world as shifting from "investment" to "refinancing" amid $350T+ global debt. Global liquidity is in an expansionary phase. Gold is a "monetary debasement" hedge, Bitcoin is "gold on steroids," and equities are supported by rising liquidity. Notably a Treasury and commodities bear on term-premium and supply grounds.

Danielle DiMartino Booth — The Masked Recession

The QI Research view: the US is already sliding into recession, masked by lagging data (birth-death model, WARN notices, collapsing labor-force participation). Bullish long Treasuries and gold, bearish equities on "fantastical" earnings, and no rate hike coming. She reads a cooler CPI as confirmation the labor market is cracking.

Erik Townsend — The Energy Transition Crisis

Townsend's highest-conviction trade remains crude oil, driven by structural CAPEX underinvestment and a mismanaged transition. This week's MacroVoices flagged Bab el-Mandeb as "the next oil chokepoint nobody's watching." Structurally bullish gold and uranium/nuclear; a notable Bitcoin skeptic who expects CBDCs to dominate.

Raoul Pal — The Everything Code

Pal sees the "Spring/Summer" of the liquidity cycle favoring high-beta assets — crypto and tech. This week he turned bullish on the Fed path (cuts to refinance debt) but reversed bearish on commodities, which he views as structurally challenged by deflationary technology. Bitcoin, Solana and the Nasdaq remain his core longs.

Hugh Hendry — The Dollar Guillotine

Hendry's notable reversal: bullish the USD, calling it "the guillotine" as global dollar-denominated debts must be serviced. His most colorful call is the Nikkei to 200,000, driven not by earnings but by trillions in idle Japanese cash fleeing collapsing purchasing power: "Cash isn't money. It's a probability machine."

Jim Bianco — Sticky Inflation, No Landing

Bianco argues the post-pandemic economy is structurally higher-nominal-growth with a neutral rate (r*) near 4%. A cooler CPI doesn't change the picture — he sees the 10Y heading toward 5%+ on term premium and issuance. Bullish gold and Bitcoin as parallel-system bets; cautious on concentrated equities.

Jeff Snider — The Dollar Shortage

Snider's Eurodollar framework reads falling commodities and EM stress ("India is begging for dollars") as signs of a global liquidity squeeze. This week he flipped bearish on the Fed path ("the Fed does not do money; they do PR") and bearish on commodities. Bullish long Treasuries and a rising dollar — both signals of systemic distress, not strength.

David Rosenberg — The Delayed Recession

Rosenberg maintains the soft landing is a "statistical mirage." His conviction trade is long Treasuries (10Y toward 3%). This week he reversed bearish on oil/energy, viewing commodities as too sensitive to a contracting industrial cycle. Bearish equities and the dollar; bullish gold as an insurance policy.

Luke Gromen: Long gold and Bitcoin, bearish long bonds and USD; Fed forced to cut.

Michael Howell: Long gold, Bitcoin and equities on rising liquidity; cautious on Treasuries.

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Long Treasuries and gold, bearish equities; no hike coming.

Erik Townsend: Long crude oil (highest conviction), gold, uranium; Bitcoin skeptic.

Raoul Pal: Long crypto (Bitcoin, Solana) and tech; bearish commodities; Fed cuts ahead.

Brent Johnson: Long USD (Milkshake), gold and US equities; bearish EM; Treasuries neutral.

David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries and gold; bearish equities, oil and USD.

Darius Dale: 30% gold allocation replacing bonds; liquidity-driven risk regime.

Hugh Hendry: Long USD ("guillotine"), gold, Bitcoin; Nikkei 200,000 thesis.

Jim Bianco: Bearish long Treasuries (10Y toward 5%+); long gold and Bitcoin.