Financial intelligence from
20 macro analysts.

Gold Is the Last Point of Agreement

Gold now commands a near-unanimous bullish lean — 19 bull / 0 bear / 1 neutral across 20 tracked analysts. From Grant Williams' "return OF capital" thesis to Luke Gromen's "inflation over default" framing to Michael Howell's monetary-debasement lens, the reasoning converges even where the analysts disagree on nearly everything else. Notably, Joseph Wang flipped from bearish to bullish, framing gold as a hedge against fiscal dominance.

The Fed Debate Flipped Hawkish

The room's read on Fed policy has drifted from a net-easing expectation to a bearish lean (weighted +0.26 → -0.17). Jim Bianco argues the market is "demanding rate hikes" as sticky core inflation holds above 3%, while Danielle DiMartino Booth now warns the Fed is "over-steering." Even Raoul Pal reversed to a more cautious stance pending a clearer liquidity catalyst.

Growth Pessimism vs. Fiscal Resilience

US growth carries a firmly bearish consensus (15 bear / 4 bull), led by David Rosenberg, Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik Townsend. The dissenting camp — Joseph Wang, Darius Dale, Michael Howell — argues the fiscal impulse is simply too strong to allow a meaningful contraction.

AI Capex Skepticism Broadens

A striking 14 of 18 analysts now lean bearish on AI capex sustainability. Demetri Kofinas reversed from bullish, and Jeff Snider frames the funding stress bluntly — private credit "burst the $25 trillion AI bubble." The bulls (Darius Dale, Michael Howell, Raoul Pal) tie the theme to liquidity rather than earnings.

Jim Bianco — The Market Is Leading the Fed

Bianco's central claim: the Fed is now "chasing" the market. With core inflation "sticky" above 3% and a synchronized global tightening cycle, he argues the fair value of yields is trending higher and that a premature pause risks a bond-vigilante revolt. Bearish on Treasuries, bullish on gold and oil as sticky-inflation hedges. Quote: "The market is demanding rate hikes."

Danielle DiMartino Booth — Over-Steering Into a Stealth Recession

Booth now reads the Fed as "over-steering," and her Fed view flipped to bearish (hawkish-error). She tracks WARN notices and full-time-vs-part-time divergence as real-time recession signals. Bullish the long end of the curve as a recession hedge and gold as a policy-error hedge; bearish equities and oil on demand destruction.

Luke Gromen — Inflation Over Default

Gromen's fiscal-dominance framework holds that the US will choose inflation over default, devaluing the dollar against hard assets. This week he flipped equities to bullish in nominal terms — stocks rise because the Fed must provide liquidity. Strongly bullish gold as the neutral reserve asset; bearish the dollar long term.

Jeff Snider — The Bond Market Is the Smart Money

Snider reads deep curve inversion and strong Treasury demand as warnings of a systemic liquidity squeeze, not Fed policy. He turned bearish on broad commodities — falling prices signal weakening global demand — and highlights soft China oil demand as a key macro tell. Bullish the dollar (shortage-driven) and Treasuries.

Brent Johnson — The Milkshake Still Pours

Johnson's Dollar Milkshake thesis stays intact: over $13T+ in offshore dollar debt forces a structural bid. Bullish USD and, unusually, gold simultaneously; bullish US equities on relative capital flight; bearish EM. He softened Treasuries to neutral, calling them the "cleanest dirty shirt" collateral.

Raoul Pal — Liquidity First, Caution on Timing

Pal's "Everything Code" and "Banana Zone" liquidity thesis keeps him bullish Bitcoin and tech long-term. But his Fed-path stance reversed to more cautious — he's waiting for a clearer liquidity-expansion catalyst before the vertical move he anticipates.

Erik Townsend — Post-Abundance Energy Regime

Townsend frames a "Post-Abundance Era" of structural energy scarcity and higher inflation volatility. Strongly bullish oil and uranium/nuclear; bullish gold; bearish long-duration Treasuries and the dollar. Skeptical on Bitcoin, expecting CBDCs to compete with private crypto.

Michael Howell — From Investment to Refinancing

Howell argues the world is now driven by debt refinancing, not investment, forcing central banks into stealth QE. Bullish gold and Bitcoin as monetary-debasement hedges; cautious on Treasury term premia. He sees global liquidity in an expansionary phase — a rare point of overlap with Pal's framework.

Grant Williams: Long gold as a volatility dampener; favors "un-indexable" real assets and energy over indexed tech.

David Rosenberg: Max-conviction long Treasuries (long end), long gold, bearish equities and cyclicals.

Brent Johnson: Long USD, long gold, long US large-cap on relative basis; short EM.

Luke Gromen: Long gold and Bitcoin; long equities in nominal terms; short dollar; favors energy and value.

Erik Townsend: Long oil and uranium/nuclear, long gold; avoids long-duration bonds and the dollar.

Raoul Pal: Long Bitcoin and tech on the liquidity cycle; awaiting a clearer easing catalyst.

Jim Bianco: Short duration / bearish Treasuries; bullish gold, oil; short-term dollar bull.

Joseph Wang: Flipped bull on gold and Bitcoin as fiscal-dominance hedges; constructive on equities via liquidity tailwind; growth resilient.