Luke Gromen

Gromen's thesis centers on the Strait of Hormuz as a catalyst for forced dollar-asset liquidation by energy-importing nations. Gold is a "0% yielding bond of finite issuance and infinite face value" — the ultimate settlement asset when trust breaks down. Targets gold at $6,000+ by mid-year. Silver's speed "outpaced gold" as a confirmation signal.

On the dollar: energy-dependent nations (Japan, China) will sell Treasuries, mortgages, and stocks to defend currencies. BRICS nations settling trade in physical gold via CIPS/mBridge. JP Morgan and big money "standing for delivery" and draining physical supply.

"Gold is final settlement — no counterparty obligation. It shines when trust is in a deficit."

Jim Bianco

Bianco delivers the starkest warning on the oil supply disruption: a 10 million barrel/day deficit that he calls "a blockage in the circulatory system of global GDP." Asian gasoline at $170, US at $3.91 and rising. His view on rates is contrarian and forceful: the appropriate central bank response is to hike, not cut.

Rates should "approximate nominal GDP expectations" — growth plus inflation. Oil rationing is coming. Corporate profits will be crushed. The question isn't if the economy slows, but whether central banks accelerate the damage by cutting into supply-driven inflation.

"Cutting rates would be a giant mistake. The appropriate response from central banks might be to hike."

Brent Johnson

Johnson sees the crisis vindicating his thesis in real-time. DXY surging from record-low positioning and sentiment to back above 100. Gold breaking down through 50-day and 100-day MAs. Oil past $100 is "a major disruptor to global peace."

His geopolitical read: Iran's yuan-for-oil demand is part of a broader "three-phase plan" where the US accepts short-term pain, betting on "better resilience" than other players. Stablecoins are being weaponized as a geopolitical tool, extending dollar hegemony into digital rails. Advisory board member of Monetary Metals for "productive use" of gold.

"Everybody was positioned for the dollar to fall out of bed. Now everybody's on the wrong side."

Jeff Snider

Snider is the lone deflationary voice in a sea of inflation hawks. His core argument: oil shocks are deflationary, not inflationary, because they destroy demand faster than they raise prices. McDonald's slashing prices is the canary — consumers are already tapping out. Global stocks "crashing" with "much more downside" than US equities.

Dollar strength is the "barometer measuring global economic distress." Housing sales crashed in January, continuing years of weakness. Corporate earnings at an inflection point. Bond markets are "repricing their repricing" as they realize the deflationary implications.

"The dollar's sharp rise against a whole host of currencies is an expected outcome — it measures what is going wrong worldwide."

Michael Howell

Howell frames everything through liquidity cycles. The West is trapped in a "debt-liquidity spiral" while China now commands 29% of the global liquidity pool vs US at 22%. Expects a Q2/Q3 "wobble" as economic momentum pulls liquidity from financial assets into working capital, followed by Q4+ rebound.

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are "monetary inflation hedges" to buy for the long term. Equities are not in an overall bubble (equity-to-liquidity ratio at 0.5 vs 0.85 at Y2K). The yield curve is distorted by ~100bps from Fed/Treasury manipulation. Long-term: government debt monetization is the dominant macro force.

Lyn Alden

Alden remains the most articulate Bitcoin bull: it's a "multi-trillion dollar asset bought for its own sake" with an 83% correlation to global liquidity over 12-month periods. Gold is a "scarce high-quality asset, not overowned" in portfolios. Both benefit from the fiscal dominance regime.

On Treasuries: the Fed's strategy to maintain market liquidity is "non-negotiable for financial stability" but long-term vulnerability is growing. The stablecoin ecosystem and Bitcoin treasury companies (like Strategy) are creating new dynamics in crypto market structure.

Russell Napier

Napier sees the world in the early stages of a "quiet but fundamental restructuring" of the monetary system. Governments are taking back money creation power from central banks via loan guarantees. This financial repression — forcing institutions to hold bonds at negative real yields — is how the unprecedented debt gets managed.

Expects a "long-term prolonged liquidation of the S&P 500" as capital returns to national home bases. BUT value equities and industrial/capex stocks are bullish as a "huge capital expenditure boom" builds productive capacity. The Euro faces existential threat as 19 governments exercise monetary power independently. Gold and commodity stocks are core allocations.

Louis-Vincent Gave

Gave delivers the most important under-the-radar signal: PBOC appreciated RMB in 44 of last 48 sessions — a deliberate pivot from deflation to reflation. China was the world's "deflationary force" for a decade; that era is ending. This combined with Russia-China-India forming "the greatest economic partnership ever" (cheap commodities + cheap capital + cheap labor).

US dollar structurally bearish: current account deficit deteriorated from 3.6% to 6% of GDP in one year (~$2T flowing abroad). US tech is "the world of yesterday." EM and China equities offer better risk/reward. "Pretty much every major equity market is up double digit" outside the US.

Darius Dale

Dale has declared a "global liquidity crisis" — a capital account crisis, not just current account. Foreign demand for Treasury coupons peaked November 2025 and is diverging. Iran's control of Hormuz will let it "dictate the price of global energy products."

AI-driven "jobless recovery" thesis being confirmed: real-time data showing accelerating displacement. Short-term interest rates making "higher highs and higher lows on a secular basis." 42 Macro's gold model suffered a "signal failure" requiring recalibration. Equity futures down, credit spreads widening.

Joseph Wang

Wang sees the energy shock as a "one-time change in price level" that the Fed should look through. Still expects rate cuts this year despite hawkish FOMC language. Labor market is the real story: "we basically created no jobs last year" after revisions.

Oil is "structurally higher long-term" with Brent around $110 and "don't look like they're going down." S&P broke 100-day MA, gold took a "pretty big beating." The front end of the yield curve saw "tremendous carnage." Bearish equities, oil, and growth in the medium term.

David Rosenberg

Rosenberg frames the inflationary environment as primarily a supply shock in essentials (food, fuel) rather than broad-based inflation. This inevitably leads to demand destruction and recession. Current market rallies are just "short covering." Corporate earnings "actually starting to contract" with Wall Street estimates still far too high.

Oil is a "chokehold on the global economy." Long-term gold bull but tactically took profits. Favors Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price (SIRP) — capital preservation in a world where "the market will remain at best in a range."

Erik Townsend

Townsend argues the Iran conflict is "a significant, underpriced macroeconomic risk" that will drive a secular rise in inflation. Equities are complacent with K-CAPE at 40 vs 18 in 1973-74. Wheat is his trade of the week — the emerging food inflation narrative with tightening export flows and still net-short positioning.

Two scenarios dominate: quick resolution = "terrific buy the dip setup." Prolonged conflict = "cyclical bear market or even an outright crash." Uranium and copper also flagged as structural plays. Gold consolidating short-term but remains the ultimate hedge against both inflation and deflation.